- Showers will linger over much of the region Friday.
- Windy conditions are expected Friday morning from Long Island to Cape Cod.
- Most of the region will see highs in the 70s Friday (with some 60s) along the New England Coast.
- Much of the South will enjoy a dry Friday.
- Scattered thunderstorms (a few severe) across the Panhandle and parts of the northern Florida Peninsula.
- Thunderstorms will also be scattered around the Rio Grande Valley of Texas.
- Cooler highs in the 70s across the Southeast Friday.
- Highs mainly in the 90s west of the Mississippi River.
- Areas from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will enjoy a dry Friday.
- Thunderstorms will erupt by Friday afternoon from North Dakota down to Iowa and westward to Nebraska.
- Some thunderstorms could turn severe with hail and damaging winds.
- A few tornadoes are possible, especially in the eastern Nebraska/eastern Iowa area.
- Highs mainly in the 70s Friday from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and southward to the Ohio Valley.
- Highs in the 90s across the southern Plains Friday.
- Parts of the central and northern Great Lakes may actually remain in the 60s.
- Much of the region will be dry Friday.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across much of western Montana.
- Scattered thunderstorms are also possible around higher elevations of Colorado and New Mexico Friday.
- It remains cool in the Northwest with highs generally in the 60s and 70s.
- Much hotter in the Southwest with highs in the 90s and 100s away from the coast.
- Highs in the deserts could climb as high as 120 degrees.
- The Colorado Front Range will also see highs around 90.Read More
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the region today, especially from western New York into Pennsylvania.
- Most of the immediate East Coast, including New York City, will remain dry during the daytime hours.
- Today’s highs will be in the 60s to low 70s across most of New York, Pennsylvania and New England.
- Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s around the Middle Atlantic region.
- Tropical Storm Andrea or its remnants will spread heavy rain and breezy conditions up the Eastern Seaboard to Maine on Friday.
- Tropical Storm Andrea has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and has become the first named storm of the Atlantic tropical season.
- Andrea is located about 220 miles west/ southwest of Tampa, Florida.
- The latest forecast calls for Andrea to move into Florida by late afternoon and evening, likely making landfall on the eastern end of Apalachee Bay.
- Rain (some heavy with localized flooding) will continue northward through Florida today.
- Isolated tornadoes are possible for central and southern Florida.
- Much of the Southeast, lower MS Valley and parts of Texas will see showers and thunderstorms today with locally heavy rain and possibly a stray severe storm.
- The rip current threat remains high along the Gulf Coast from Alabama to Florida.
- Today’s highs will reach the upper 70s and 80s across much of the region.
- Highs in the 90s across parts of southern and western Texas today.
- Showers and thunderstorms will prevail today for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and mid-MS Valley.
- No significant severe weather is anticipated, but some brief heavy rain is possible.
- Much of the Plains and Upper Midwest will enjoy a dry Thursday.
- River crests along the Mississippi will gradually move southward from St. Louis.
- Today’s highs in the 60s across the Upper Midwest to most of the Great Lakes region.
- Pleasant high temperatures in the 70s today from the Plains to the Ohio Valley.
- The vast majority of the region will be dry on this Thursday.
- Some isolated thunderstorms expected in the higher elevations from western Montana to Colorado.
- Scattered thunderstorms across higher elevations of New Mexico today.
- Highs around 90 today from eastern Washington and Oregon to southern Idaho and northern Nevada.
- The hottest temperatures of the season are expected across the Desert Southwest into the interior valleys of California with highs well above 100 degrees.
- Phoenix could reach their first 110 degree day and Death Valley their first 120 degree day of the season either today or Friday.
- The fire danger will remain elevated across the Southwest and in parts of Southern California.
Tropical Storm Andrea Bearing Down on Fla. Coast
Heavy rain was pouring across much of Florida early Thursday as the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season headed toward the state’s western coast and a new tropical storm warning was issued for a swath of the U.S. East Coast.
Tropical storm warnings were in effect for a large section of Florida’s west coast from Boca Grande to Indian Pass and for the East Coast from Flagler Beach, Fla., all the way to Cape Charles Light in Virginia.
Tropical Storm Andrea’s maximum sustained winds increased to near 60 mph (95 kph) and the storm was expected to make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend area Thursday afternoon before moving across southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas. It was not expected to strengthen into a hurricane.
“It could cause minor flooding in low-lying areas, particularly some areas that saw flooding from Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006,” said Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist for The Weather Channel. Forecasters said two to five feet of storm surge could be expected in the Big Bend as Andrea draws closer.
By 8 a.m. EDT, areas near Carrabelle, Fla. in the state’s panhandle had already received 4.5 inches of rain, according to local storm reports.
Reporting live from North Redington Beach, Weather Channel meteorologist Mike Seidel said the Tampa area has seen typical traffic issues for a rainy morning, but little else. He also reported some minor damage to the Sun City Center.
“Overall, the beach impacts should be minimal in the Tampa-St. Pete area as far as losing sand,” said Seidel, surrounded by boats and beach chairs that weren’t even moved away from the coastline.
Not far from Seidel’s location, a tornado was reportedly in progress in the heavily-populated town of Gulfport late Friday morning, according to a staff member with the Tampa Bay Times. Local storm reports said the possible tornado downed trees and left damage to vehicles and the roof of a restaurant.
Previously, the National Weather Service in Tampa confirmed two tornadoes touched down early Thursday – one in Myakka City and the other in Sun City Center. Meteorologist Rodney Wynn said there were reports of downed tree limbs and power lines and minor damage to the porch on at least one home. There were no reports of injuries.
Wynn said there have also been reports of minor flooding in the area, including along Tampa’s Bayshore Drive.
Tornado warnings and watches could be issued throughout the day.
- Summer has arrived with very warm and hot temperatures expected at least through Saturday.
- Highs in the 80s to lower 90s are expected in most areas.
- For some areas from West Virginia to south New England it may be a heat wave with highs above 90 for three consecutive days.
- Humidity levels start on the moderate side, but it will increase and become muggy Friday and Saturday.
- Most areas remain dry through Friday, although a few thunderstorms are possible in northern Maine Friday.
- A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms back to the region Saturday and Sunday.
- The severe thunderstorm outbreak continues in central and east Oklahoma and north and west Arkansas today.
- Friday the threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes continues in central and east Oklahoma and smaller part of northwest Arkansas.
- Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes are possible both days.
- Severe thunderstorms may extend from central Texas to north Arkansas again on Saturday.
- Heavy showers and thunderstorms continue across central and south Florida through the weekend and into the start of next week.
- Rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with high spots over 8 inches is possible in south Florida.
- In central Florida rain gauges may record 1 to 3 inches with high spots of 5 inches.
- Localized flooding is possible each day.
- High temperatures will be mostly in the 80s across the region Thursday.
- In West Texas 90s and some lower 100s are possible.
- Some 90s are also possible in parts of the Southeast.
- The storm system responsible for producing the severe thunderstorms and tornadoes Wednesday plods eastward today and tomorrow.
- Today’s threat area covers the eastern Dakotas, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and the Mississippi Valley.
- Friday’s threat area extends from Minnesota and the western Great Lakes southwest to east Kansas.
- Damaging wind gusts, hail and tornadoes are possible both days.
- Severe thunderstorms are still possible in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and middle Mississippi Valley Saturday.
- Repeated thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall from the eastern Plains to the Great Lakes through at least Saturday.
- Widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is possible with high spots over 3 inches through Saturday.
- Flooding is already occur from east Nebraska and northeast Kansas to north Illinois.
- The additional heavy rain likely increases the flooding with some rivers rising into major flood levels.
- High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s and lower 80s in the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
- Warmer middle 80s to lower 90s are expected in southern Michigan, the Ohio Valley and Kentucky.
- Persistent moderate to heavy rain occurs in north-central and east Montana through Friday.
- Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is forecast with a few spots possibly picking up over 3 inches.
- Some flooding is possible in the eastern half of Montana.
- Lighter showers and thunderstorms are forecast in north Wyoming, west Montana, north Idaho and in the coastal Northwest.
- A few pop-up thunderstorms could develop in the Colorado Rockies during the afternoon.
- The remainder of the region should be dry.
- Highs remain cool holding in the 50s and 60s from the Northwest to Wyoming.
- Milder 70s and lower 80s occur from north California east to Colorado.
- In the Southwest highs range from the 60s at the coast to the 90s and 100s in the deserts.Read More
- Friday highs will only reach the 50s from eastern West Virginia northward through Upstate New York to northern New England.
- Highs in the 60s from coastal Maine to the Middle Atlantic region Friday.
- The holiday weekend will feature much below average temperatures with wet weather from New England to eastern NY/PA and NJ.
- Areas of heavy rain over parts of New England could lead to localized flooding this weekend.
- Some of the highest elevations of eastern NY and western New England could even see some snow this weekend.
- Showers and thunderstorms will erupt over parts of from the TX Panhandle to West Texas.
- Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, for the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening.
- Highs will be in the very comfy 70s in Tennessee, Kentucky and the Carolinas.
- Highs will be mostly in the 80s and 90s from the Southern Plains to the Southeast.
- Some great holiday weekend weather ahead for most locations with cool to mild nights and mild to warm (not hot) days and low humidity levels.
- More active weather Friday in the Plains with showers and thunderstorms from the Dakotas down to Oklahoma.
- A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe (with isolated tornadoes) across parts of southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.
- Highs will be mainly in the 60s from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.
- Highs in the 70s in the Mississippi and Missouri Valley areas.
- The High Plains will see the mercury reach the 80s Friday.
- Most of the northwestern U.S. will remain unsettled Friday but temperatures will begin to moderate.
- Snow showers will continue in the higher elevations of Washington, Oregon and Idaho.
- Some thunderstorms in easternmost sections of Colorado and New Mexico.
- A few thunderstorms in northeast Colorado could be severe with hail, damaging winds and Isolated tornadoes.
- The Northwest will see highs in the 60s and 70s. Some mountains will hold in the 40s and 50s.
- Highs will reach the 70s to near 80 in eastern Montana and Wyoming.
- Highs from north California to Colorado should be mostly in the 70s and 80s.
- Hot in the Southwest with highs ranging from the 60s and 70s at the California coast to the 90s to around 100 in the deserts.
NOAA: Active 2013 Hurricane Season Looms
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued their latest 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, expecting yet another active season.
The forecast calls for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 of which are expected to become hurricanes, including 3-6 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). NOAA’s forecast specifies a “70% likelihood” of a range of storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.
These forecast numbers are above the long-term average from 1950-2012 (12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes) and slightly above the averages for the current active era from 1995-2012 (15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes).
Three straight Atlantic hurricane seasons have had 19 storms. Only seven Atlantic seasons have had more hurricanes than last season’s 10 hurricanes. Among the four U.S. landfalls were the most intense tropical cyclone to make a U.S. landfall prior to June 1 (Tropical Storm Beryl), a soaking Tropical Storm Debby, a painfully slow Hurricane Isaac, and one of the most destructive storms in U.S. history, Superstorm Sandy. (Sandy became a “post-tropical” system shortly before landfall.)
OTHER SEASONAL FORECASTS:
The Weather Channel’s forecast released on April 8 called for 16 named storms, 9 of which would become hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
Colorado State University (CSU) released its forecast for the 2013 hurricane season on April 10 predicting a total of 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, Dr. Gerry Bell, said conditions are in place for a more active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive wind patterns from Africa.”
This season will likely continue the active phase for Atlantic tropical cyclones we’ve seen in place since 1995.
One factor that is increasingly unlikely to affect the season: El Nino.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasters are not forecasting the development of El Nino, a periodic warming of equatorial eastern Pacific waters, in time for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.
Stronger wind shear, a nemesis to tropical cyclone development, tends to appear in parts of the Atlantic Basin in a season in which El Nino has developed.
History Shows Be Prepared Every Season!
“Through scientists at Weather Services International (WSI), The Weather Channel has been producing hurricane seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic Ocean since 2006,” says Dr. Peter Neilley, Vice President, Global Forecasting Services.
“The forecasts are based on state-of-the-science techniques and inputs such as patterns of ocean temperatures in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The Weather Channel forecasts have proven quite accurate and generally predict the number of storms within two each year.”
“However, it is important to note that our forecasts are for the total number of storms that may occur anywhere within the Atlantic Ocean, and do not attempt to predict the number of storms that will make landfall in the U.S.,” says Neilley.
Senior Meteorologist Stu Ostro (Facebook | Twitter) points out, “Some businesses such as those who are clients of Weather Services International (WSI) find value in hurricane season forecasts. The total number of storms is of interest to me because it matters for how busy I am during the season; for example, there wasn’t a U.S. hurricane landfall in either 2009 or 2010, but the former had 9 storms and the latter 19.”
“Nevertheless, as I am on record many times as saying, and as is The Weather Channel’s philosophy, these forecasts absolutely cannot accurately predict critical details such as where or how many landfalls will occur and people in hurricane-prone areas should be equally prepared every year regardless of seasonal outlooks.”
Ostro adds, “In 1983 there were only four named storms, but one of them was Alicia, a Category 3 which hit the Houston-Galveston area and caused almost as many direct fatalities there as Andrew did in South Florida.”
“While the saying might appear trite, Andrew and Alicia exemplify that truly all it takes is one.”
On the opposite side of the spectrum from those two relatively inactive hurricane seasons that each had a single devastating landfall was the 2010 season.
That year we saw a total of 12 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. In all, there were 19 named storms, which tied 1995 for the third most on record during a season.
Despite the large number of storms that year, not a single hurricane and only one tropical storm made landfall in the United States.
That said, some U.S. impacts did occur, including four cyclones bringing tropical storm conditions to some part of the country. However, most of the damage and, in many cases, casualties occurred in other countries.Read More
- Look for much warmer temperatures and gusty winds today for much of the region, especially for New England.
- A few showers are expected across northernmost sections of New England.
- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop along a frontal boundary in the Mid-Atlantic.
- Today’s highs will be mainly in the 70s and 80 across much the region.
- A few areas of northern Maine will see highs in the upper 50s and 60s.
- High pressure will bring dry and warm weather to much of the region today, especially for the Southeast and Carolinas.
- Scattered thunderstorms can be expected today from eastern Texas to much of Arkansas and northern Louisiana with a slow moving upper-low.
- Highs will range from the upper 70s to upper 80s across most of the region.
- Highs mainly in the 90s across the western half of Texas today.
- A dry day is in store from Minnesota through the Great Lakes with high pressure poking south from Canada.
- Scattered thunderstorms are possible today from the western Dakotas through Nebraska/Iowa to the Ohio Valley along a warm front/stationary front.
- A few thunderstorms could turn severe, with large hail and damaging winds over western sections of South Dakota to Nebraska.
- High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s over much of the area today.
- Cooler upper 50s and 60s from far northern WI to northern MI.
- Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered across much of northern California, Oregon, Idaho and Montana as moisture continues to ride in from the Pacific.
- Clouds and precipitation in the Northwest will keep temperatures mainly in the 60s today.
- The rest of the region will be mainly dry.
- The Intermountain region and Great Basin will see highs up into the 80s today.
- Today’s highs in the 70s to near 80 along the Front range.
- Highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees in the Desert Southwest.
Tropical Storm Alvin Heads Out to Sea
Tropical Storm Alvin, the first named storm of the 2013 eastern Pacific hurricane season, formed off the coast of Mexico on Wednesday
Alvin is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves away from land. No significant impacts are expected.
The latest forecast path and wind speeds from the National Hurricane Center.Read More
- The old sluggish storm that has been crossing the country for the last week and a half finally moves out of the country through New England later today.
- Showers and thunderstorms are possible from the northern Virginias through New England as the low departs.
- Rainfall should be less intense overall, but there could still be a few pockets of heavier downpours that cause localized flooding.
- High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s across the region with some 80s possible in Virginia and western West Virginia.
- A cold front sweeps through Friday through early Sunday with more showers and thunderstorms and some locally heavy rainfall.
- Some thunderstorms may be strong producing gusty winds and hail.
- A cold front will slowly push across the region producing showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.
- Today’s showers and thunderstorms mainly occur in Oklahoma and central/east Texas with severe thunderstorms likely.
- Large hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are possible.
- Friday’s showers and thunderstorms extend from Tennessee southwest to Texas.
- Some severe thunderstorms are possible from south Mississippi to south Texas.
- High temperatures today will be mostly in the upper 70s and 80s across the region.
- Highs in the 90s are forecast in the Rio Grande Valley of south Texas.
- A cold front sparks showers and thunderstorms from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes to Kansas.
- Some thunderstorms may become severe producing damaging wind gusts and hail from the lower Great Lakes to the middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening.
- Temperatures ahead of the front will still be warm with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
- Cooler temperatures behind the front produce highs mainly in the 60s, but areas around Lake Superior may stay in the upper 40s and 50s.
- The cold front continues to produce showers and thunderstorms in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across most of the region today.
- The biggest concentration should stretch from Nevada to Wyoming and Colorado.
- Dry conditions are forecast in Washington, most of Oregon, central and south California, south Arizona and south New Mexico.
- High temperatures will mainly be in the 70s and 80s across the region.
- Cooler 50s and 60s are expected in Wyoming, Colorado, north New Mexico, northeast Arizona and southeast Utah.
- Hot 90s are forecast in central and east Washington.
- Record highs are still possible across much of the Northwest.Read More
- High pressure dominates the region keeping it mostly dry today.
- Just a few showers possible across northernmost sections of New England.
- Generally dry and pleasant early May weather for the Northeast through the upcoming weekend.
- Highs today in the 60s are forecast from Maine to coastal sections of the Middle Atlantic region.
- Warmer 70s are forecast for much of interior sections from western NY to West Virginia.
- Showers and thunderstorms over a large portion of the region from Texas to Arkansas and in the Gulf Coast region to southern Georgia down through Florida.
- As the low from Achilles slowly advances eastward from the Plains, locally heavy rain could spark flooding across parts of Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee and Alabama through Saturday.
- Thunderstorms could produce heavy rain, hail and localized flooding across parts of southern Florida on Thursday.
- As colder air rushes in, snow will fall as far south as northern Oklahoma today into Friday.
- A freeze is possible across Oklahoma and parts of north Texas by Friday morning.
- Highs today reach the 70s and 80s across much of the Southeast and Gulf coast.
- Chilly highs in the 40s and 50s much of northern/western Texas and Oklahoma.
- Highs only in the 60s south of Dallas to San Antonio, Texas.
- Far South Texas holding onto warmer 70s and 80s.
- Winter Storm Achilles is likely to set snowfall records from western Kansas into northern Wisconsin making it truly “historic” for May.
- Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are forecast for parts of southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas.
- Another band of heavier snow is forecast from northeast Nebraska through western/central Iowa into northwest Wisconsin through today.
- Accumulations there are forecast to be 3 to 8 inches (with local amounts 12″+ possible).
- Showers and thunderstorms occur along and ahead of Achilles’ cold front from north Michigan to Missouri.
- Dry conditions are expected in the lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and far northern Plains.
- Cold temperatures today with highs in the 30s and 40s from northern Wisconsin to Oklahoma.
- Warm highs in the 70s from southeast Missouri to south Michigan, the Ohio Valley and Kentucky.
- With heavy rain a possibility today and Friday a wary eye will be kept on areas from eastern MO through IL to western IN for possible flooding.
- A few morning snow showers across southeast CO and northeast NM.
- Windy conditions, some gusts over 40 mph, from southeast CO through eastern NM.
- High pressure dominates the remainder of the region keeping it dry.
- Easterly winds around the southern end of the high pressure cause Santa Ana winds to blow through the passes and canyons of the mountains in Southern California.
- Winds could gust over 50 mph below canyons and passes.
- Fire danger is elevated over parts of California.
- Very cold with highs in the 30s and 40s across Wyoming and most of Colorado.
- Milder highs in the 50s occur in Montana, northeast Nevada, most of Utah and southern Colorado.
- Today’s highs in the 80s from southern Oregon through much of California, including Los Angeles and San Francisco.
- Mild highs in the 60s and 70s across the Pacific Northwest.
- Highs in the low to middle 90s across the Desert Southwest and Central Valley of CA.Read More
- Dry conditions are anticipated for much of the region.
- A weak disturbance triggers a few showers in west New York and northwest Pennsylvania.
- Highs in the 50s occur from west Pennsylvania to Maine.
- Slightly warmer 60s occur from the Virginias to Massachusetts.
- The majority of the region will be dry.
- Showers and thunderstorms are possible in coastal Louisiana and southeast Texas as Gulf of Mexico moisture begins to move northward toward the southern Plains.
- An upper level low moving out of the Southwest encounters that increasing moisture increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage in the southern Plains and Texas Friday.
- Severe thunderstorms are possible in south Oklahoma and north Texas Friday afternoon and evening.
- The same storm moves eastward spreading rain and some thunderstorms through the South over the weekend.
- High temperatures Thursday will be mainly in the 70s across the region.
- Spotty 60s are possible from the Texas Panhandle to North Carolina.
- Warmer 80s and a few lower 90s occur in south Georgia and Florida.
- A weak disturbance brings rain and snow showers to the Great Lakes and north and central sections of Indiana and Ohio.
- Snow/mix is most likely in north and central Michigan in the morning with no significant accumulations expected.
- The remainder of the region will be dry.
- Temperatures are moderating, but still cool with highs in the 40s and 50s from North Dakota to the Ohio Valley.
- Warmer 60s and 70s from South Dakota to Kentucky.
- An upper level low moves thorough the Southwest
- Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop near the mountains of north Arizona, north New Mexico, south Utah and south Colorado.
- Those storm should diminish after sunset.
- The remainder of the region remains dry.
- High temperatures will be mostly in the 60s and 70s across the region.
- Warmer 80s and lower 90s occur in the Central Valley of California and the deserts.
- Cooler 40s and 50s are expected near the Rockies from southwest Montana and west Wyoming to central Colorado.Read More
- Rain showers will move into the region today and stretch from northern WV up to western ME.
- Major metro areas along the East Coast will enjoy a dry Thursday.
- Rain and storms overspread the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
- Highs well into the 70s from western PA to western NY, with some 80s in West Virginia.
- Cooler 50s today along the immediate East Coast from New England down through New Jersey.
- Highs mainly in the 60s from eastern NY to eastern PA.
- A great Thursday in the Baltimore-Washington area with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
- A line of severe thunderstorms, with isolated tornadoes and damaging winds, will progress eastward today from eastern Texas into Arkansas, Louisiana, western Kentucky, western Tennessee and western Mississippi.
- Much cooler temperatures today behind the front for the southern Plains.
- The cooler air spreads into the Southeast on Friday.
- Highs today will mainly be in the 70s and 80s across the Southeast and 50s and 60s Oklahoma and northern TX.
- Winter Storm Yogi brings severe storms and snow to the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes today.
- Snow continues from western Kansas and central Nebraska to Minnesota, north Wisconsin and north Michigan today.
- Accumulations of 3 to 12 inches are possible from northern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota through northeast Minnesota and north Wisconsin.
- Yogi also brings the threat of severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes to the region through this evening.
- The threat area includes extreme southeast Kansas, central and south Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and west Kentucky.
- Damaging wind gusts, large hail and a isolated tornadoes are possible with the strongest storms.
- Heavy rain also falls from east Kansas through Michigan with widespread 1 to 3 inch amounts and isolated 3 to 5 inch totals through Friday.
- Rivers are running high from central Missouri through Michigan from previous storms.
- River flooding and flash flooding likely WI/IL/IA.
- Today’s highs in the 30s across the northern and central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest.
- Many areas east of the Mississippi River, from the Ohio valley to the lower Gt. Lakes will see highs in the low to mid 80s today.
- Most of the snow from Winter Storm Yogi will move out of the region today.
- There will be just a few lingering snow showers in the higher elevations of Colorado and northern New Mexico.
- Rain and high mountain snow return to the Pacific Northwest as a new storm works in from the Gulf of Alaska.
- The remainder of the region should be dry.
- Cold temperatures with highs in the 20s and 30s over much of Colorado and Wyoming today.
- Milder 50s and 60s in the Northwest and Nevada.
- Highs mainly in the 70s across the Desert Southwest.
- Cooler highs in the 50s and 60s across New Mexico today.
- Winter Storm Walda impacts the region with snow, ice, rain and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.
- Snow and ice are forecast in northern New York and northern New England with snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 5 inches possible.
- Some ice accumulations on power lines and trees is possible from central New York through central New Hampshire and central Maine.
- Rain and thunderstorms are expected in the remainder of the region.
- Severe thunderstorms are possible in southwest Pennsylvania Thursday and eastern Virginia Friday.
- Main severe threats are damaging wind gusts and hail.
- Much colder temperatures are expected throughout most of the region with highs running 10 to 30 degrees lower than Wednesday.
- Chilly highs in the 30s and 40s are expected in New York and New England.
- Cool highs in the 50s and 60s from central and northern Pennsylvania to Long Island.
- Warmer 70s occur in southern Pennsylvania and northern sections of West Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.
- Very warm 80s still occur in the remainder of West Virginia, Maryland and Delaware and across Virginia.
- Powerful thunderstorms rumble across the South and Southeast along Winter Storm Walda’s cold front through Friday.
- Severe thunderstorms containing damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible in Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, eastern Louisiana and western and central Georgia through late Thursday afternoon.
- The severe threat shifts into the Carolinas, the remainder of Georgia and northern Florida Thursday night.
- Friday the threat appears lower, but isolated severe storms are still possible from the eastern Carolinas to northern and central Florida.
- Much calmer weather conditions are expected behind Walda in Oklahoma, Texas and western Arkansas.
- Very warm highs in the 70s and 80s are forecast in eastern Tennessee, the Carolinas, Georgia, eastern Alabama and Florida.
- Elsewhere highs should be mostly in the 50s and 60s with 70s possible in southern Texas.
- Winter Storm Walda continues to produce accumulating snow from northeast Nebraska and the eastern Dakotas through northern Michigan.
- Additional accumulations of 1 to 6 inches are forecast with a maximum band of 5 to 8 inches of snow from eastern Minnesota through northern Michigan.
- Lighter snow continues around the Great Lakes Friday.
- Walda’s warm side produces showers and thunderstorms from the lower Great Lakes through Kentucky.
- Severe thunderstorms are possible in eastern Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky with the strongest storms producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated tornadoes.
- Cold temperatures with highs in the 20s, 30s and 40s in the Dakotas, Nebraska, northeast Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.
- Much warmer highs in the 60s, 70s and lower 80s in Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky.
- In between highs should be mostly in the 50s.
- A weaker storm moves through the Rocky Mountain states producing rain and snow showers.
- Accumulating snow should be limited to the mountains with up to 6 inches possible.
- Some snow mixes in with the rain in the lower elevations from eastern Montana to Utah and Colorado.
- Some rain and snow showers also occur in the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest.
- The remainder of the region remains dry.
- Highs recover in the Rockies, but still remain below average with 30s in the mountains and 40s and 50s in the valleys.
- Pacific Northwest highs should be in the 50s and 60s.
- Across the Southwest highs range from the 50s and 60s in the mountains and along the coast to the 80s and lower 90s in the deserts.
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2013
We anticipate that the 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have enhanced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2013 to be approximately 175 percent of the long-term average.
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2013
|Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010||Issue Date|
|Median (in parentheses)||10 April 2013|
|Named Storms (NS) (12.0)||18|
|Named Storm Days (NSD) (60.1)||95|
|Hurricanes (H) (6.5)||9|
|Hurricane Days (HD) (21.3)||40|
|Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)||4|
|Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (3.9)||9|
|Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92)||165|
|Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (103%)||175|
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE
LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline – 72% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 48% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 47% (average for last century is 30%)
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE
TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W)
1) 61% (average for last century is 42%)Read More