National
Japan Possibly Importing LNG From Continental US
Due to last year’s tsunami effects on Japans nuclear fleet, the country now heavily relies on liquefied natural gas (LNG) for their power needs. The fracking revolution has flooded the US natural gas market – prompting many producers to consider export projects.
LNG Tanker Leaving Japan/Courtesy of Bloomberg
Japan is currently in talks with Sempra Energy’s LNG project in Cameron, Louisiana; Dominion Resources’ LNG project in Cove Point, Maryland; and Freeport LNG in Texas to buy a combined 30 million metric tons of LNG a year. More information can be found here.
Gas prices in Asia are about seven times higher than US prices, making the export to Japan a profitable opportunity for US natural gas corporations. Like any commodity, exporting from the US decreases the supply and increases the demand causing prices to potentially increase.
Read MoreNatural Gas Gluttony Causing One Major Producer to Reduce Drilling Operations
Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK), the second largest producer of natural gas in the United States, is making vast changes in order to protect their shareholders. Natural gas prices have hit a ten year low causing Chesapeake to decrease drilling in the Barnett, Haynesville and Marcellus Shale Plays. The company is immediately curtailing gross gas production by up to .5 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day. If prices remain low, the company is willing to increase the curtailment to 1 Bcf a day.
An abundance of shale gas plays (see above image) has led to a surplus in natural gas inventories. Coupled with the mild winter the US has seen, natural gas prices steadily declined. After Chesapeake’s announcement, the market closed up $0.182 to $2.525. Pundits still feel that to have a real impact, other producers such as Exxon, EnCana and Devon Energy will have to follow suit.
Please visit http://rapidpower.net/rpm-market-news to see a real time update on 12, 24 and 36 month natural gas futures prices.
Read MoreEPA’s CSAPR Delayed
The EPA Cross State Air Pollution Rule finalized in July 2011 has been delayed pending further review. The US District Court of Appeals granted a request from several power generators who stated the January 1, 2012 implementation date was too soon.
The Federal Electric Regulatory Council (FERC) is also concerned with the impact that the rule would have in places like Texas and the New England States where demand is high.
The court is asking that oral arguments regarding this matter take place by April 2012.
As RPM clients, we will continue to keep you informed on this critical piece of legislation.
Previous Articles Regarding the CSAPR:
Enforcement of the Cross State Air Pollution Rule Nears
EPA’s Clean Air Act Amendment could cause energy prices to rise as early as 2012
Read MoreQ4 2011: Solar Power: Time To Shine?
Renewable energy sources such as Solar power have become an increasingly popular energy resource over the years thanks to decreasing prices and increased awareness via reduced production costs, green energy advocates, government incentives and panel manufacturers’ marketing efforts.
Although solar power is still approximately three times more expensive than electricity produced by natural gas, prices have fallen by two thirds since 2008. To further solar power’s affordability, federal and state governments are offering tax breaks and subsidies.
The federal government offers a tax credit of 30 percent for the gross cost of solar panel installation for residents and businesses. On top of the tax credit, each state offers its own incentives for all forms of renewable energy, including solar.
The Department of Energy (DOE) rolled out the SunShot Initiative in 2007 to decrease solar energy system costs by 75% before 2020. When this goal is reached, systems will even be affordable without any rebates or tax cuts. The main goal has been to drive innovative technology.
Under the initiative, the DOE began backing the company 1366 Technologies this October with a $150-million loan. 1366 believes their new manufacturing process will significantly cut costs, making prices competitive with that of coal.
New thin-film photovoltaic cell technologies are also bringing down the costs and large companies like GE are beginning to manufacture the panels. In October GE announced plans to build the largest thin-film panel factory in the United States.
These initiatives are not only bringing down costs, they are creating jobs and with their implementation, protecting the environment.
Solar’s portion of the power business remains small but has great potential to flourish. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), solar power is capable of providing many times the total current energy demand.
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) SunShot Initiative; http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/sunshot/
Information on state, local, utility and federal incentives and policies that promote renewable energy and energy efficiency: http://www.dsireusa.org/
HAVE SOLAR COSTS COME DOWN ENOUGH FOR YOUR FACILITY?
See the example of a Ft. Worth, Texas territory cost comparison*:
THE SAME SYSTEM COST 1.6 TIMES MORE IN 2006 THAN IT WOULD NOW
*These are simply estimates calculated by RPM based on real numbers from NREL and a solar panel installer. While every state in the US is given the same federal tax credit, each state adds its own incentives. For example, New Jersey offers a yearly payback through their surplus agreements for the first 15 years of your systems life which could slash costs up to 60%.
SOLAR POWER FACTS
- Low-temperature solar collectors also absorb the sun’s heat energy, but instead of making electricity, use the heat directly for hot water or space heating in homes, offices, and other buildings.
- Covering 4% of the world’s desert area with photovoltaics could supply the equivalent of all of the world’s electricity.
- The Gobi Desert alone could supply almost all of the world’s total electricity demand.
- Passing of Bill 632 restricts any Home Owner’s Association from banning solar panels on home rooftops.
- Photovoltaic cells are used to transform energy from the sun directly into electrical power. The amount of electricity generated by a cell depends on a few things including device size, weather and length of exposure to light.
- Since the sun is an intermittent energy source, another electricity source would need to provide power during the evening or during a storm when light is not present or potent. Highest electricity demand is during the day time so the ‘back-up’ energy source would be used sparingly.
- Using solar energy produces no air or water pollution and no greenhouse gases
GDP UPDATE
The nation’s economy gained much-needed strength in the third quarter, as the pace of growth nearly doubled compared to the previous three months.
According to an advanced estimate released on October 27, U.S. gross domestic product grew 2.5% – almost double the second quarter. A poor 0.4% growth in the first three months of the year was followed by a slightly more promising 1.3% increase in the second quarter.
Stronger consumer spending significantly contributed to the growth, helping to make up for cuts in government spending.
An increase of at least 3% is needed to create enough jobs to lower the unemployment rate but economists aren’t expecting to see that rise even through 2012.
OIL AND GAS UPDATE
EIA projects average household heating expenditures for natural gas, propane, and heating oil will increase by 3 percent, 7 percent, and 8 percent, respectively, this winter (October 1 to March 31) compared with last winter, while electricity heating expenditures fall by less than 1 percent. Average expenditures for households that heat with oil are forecasted to be higher than in any previous winter.
This forecast reflects higher prices for natural gas, propane, and heating oil, and slightly milder weather than last winter in much of the nation contributing to lower consumption in many areas.
EIA expects the U.S. average refiner acquisition cost of crude oil to average $99 per barrel in 2011 and $98 per barrel in 2012, compared with $100 per barrel and $103 per barrel, respectively, in the previous Outlook.
Natural gas working inventories ended September 2011 at 3.4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 2.6 percent, or 91 billion cubic feet (Bcf), below the 2010 end-of-September level. EIA expects that working natural gas inventories will approach last year’s high levels by the end of the injection season, typically October-November each year. The projected Henry Hub natural gas spot price averages $4.15 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2011, $0.24 per MMBtu lower than the 2010 average. EIA expects the rate of growth in domestic natural gas production to slow in 2012, with the Henry Hub spot price averaging $4.32 per MMBtu.
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Enforcement of the Cross State Air Pollution Rule Nears
The Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) is approximately 3 months away from being enforced in 27 states. To meet the terms of this ruling, power companies are being forced to significantly reduce their sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions by January 1, 2012 or shut down.
Finalized this July, CSPAR will mainly affect power producers who rely on coal to generate electricity. Those regions with heavy coal-based generation may see power prices raise as many plants are obligated to retrofit with new technology or shut down.
Projected decrease in emissions beginning this January
The EPA states, “This rule will not disrupt a reliable flow of affordable electricity for American consumers and businesses.” Additionally, the EPA explains that any increase in costs will be outweighed by the benefits of the ruling. (For more information on the EPA’s stance on the rule, please visit: http://www.epa.gov/crossstaterule/)
Several states, including Florida, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Kansas, beg to differ and have challenged the EPA over its decision. Attorney General Greg Abbot in Texas explained that the EPA is ignoring the increased potential for power outage risks and unemployment for coal miners and power plant employees.
RPM will continue monitoring any changes in the ruling.
Read MoreEPA’s Clean Air Act Amendment could cause energy prices to rise as early as 2012
Ruling Background
On Thursday, July 7, the Environmental Protection Agency finalized a decision which may have an immense impact on the power generation industry. This “Cross-State Air Pollution Rule,” an amendment to the Clean Air Act, gives the EPA authority to monitor green-house gas emissions from our nation’s power plants.
The Clean Air Act gave the EPA full responsibility more than 40 years ago to act if ever a new threat to health or the environment is discovered.
A previous amendment to the Clean Air Act, made in 1990, changed the generation industry significantly. It forced new coal plants to install strict emission control equipment, making approximately 88% of plants built since 1990 natural gas-fired.
The debate on whether the EPA should hold power to curtail green-house gas emissions has been contested for nearly a decade. This debate ultimately led to the Supreme Court ruling June 20, reinforcing the EPA’s responsibility on this issue. For further information regarding the ruling, please visit the following
link:
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/ddoniger/supreme_court_climate_decision.html
Coal Plant Impact
Coal plants produce roughly 4-trillion kilowatt hours annually and represent some of the cheapest electricity for the US. Nearly half of our nation’s electricity is produced via coal, making the amendment a significant factor in any future power generation.
Reducing pollution emissions means older plants will be forced to either shut down or retrofit with expensive scrubbing systems to comply with regulations. Given the depressed price of natural gas, it can be expected that most utility companies will opt to build natural gas-fueled power plants in the future.
Utility companies such as American Electric Power Co. and CPS Energy have already announced plans to close older coal-powered plants in favor of clean energy. This means a larger impact on Midwest power markets (i.e. PJM and MISO) which rely heavily on those older coal plants.
Some reasoning for tightening up the Clean Air Act and a list of potential savings can be found at: http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/prospective2.html
Health Savings benefits are estimated to be $4 trillion by 2012 vs. the low
estimate cost of implementation ($65 billion).
Large Map of Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSPAR) States
http://www.epa.gov/airtransport/
The EPA’s new restrictions affect 27 states east of the Rocky Mountains (including Texas) beginning six months from now. Following the January 1 restrictions, a new set will be imposed May 1, forcing companies to comply – and quickly. The restrictions also establish new emissions trading programs for both SO2 and NOX.
The stakes are high and far-reaching for electric utilities, independent power producers, energy traders, natural gas and coal producers, large energy users and investors in stocks and bonds of the affected companies. As your energy advisor, we strive to keep you educated as these new rules are expected to alter future gas and electricity contracts. Already prepared for these effects, retailers have implemented added costs to deals currently being priced.
Read MoreLNG Exportation
MARKET RISE – DOE Grants Authorization of Exportation of US Natural Gas
Prices jumped this week due to news that was released on May 20th announcing that the Department of Energy has granted Cheniere Energy (Ticker Symbol – LNG) approval to export domestically produced natural gas from the Sabine Pass LNG terminal as liquefied natural gas (LNG). Liquefied Natural Gas is a process whereby natural gas is liquefied temporarily to provide an economically feasible way to store and transport the commodity. There are currently 10 LNG facilities in the US and Puerto Rico (see map below), however this is the first such authorization to allow for exportation in over forty years. Currently there are two additional applications pending approval and more are expected to follow.
The US has about 4 trillion cubic feet of storage capacity and the authorization allows Cheniere Energy to export up to 803 billion cubic feet — 20% of the US’s current storage capability – per year from this single terminal in Sabine Pass to major LNG importers across the globe. That amounts to more than 3 percent of U.S. gas consumption.
The US has steadily built up natural gas reserves since 2007, and currently has one of the largest proven reserves in the world. Industry experts believed that the reserves would keep the price of natural gas low in the future. Accessing and exporting this supply of natural gas may threaten the domestic prices on natural gas as producers will take advantage of the high prices they can attain from the global markets of China, Japan and India.
Although Cheniere won’t have the ability to export till 2015, this does raise an extra concern to our client base on their long-term purchasing goals as supply could tighten and pressure prices to rise. Rapid Power Management will continue to monitor the situation and keep our clients updated.
Read MoreRPM makes its way to the U.S. Capitol
The start of energy deregulation in Washington D.C. in January 2001* has allowed companies to choose their own energy supplier, and while having more options can be a good thing, businesses are not fully aware of all the ins and outs of the energy market or deregulation concept. This is where RPM steps in.
RPM is among the few brokers to be licensed in Washington for energy deregulation. The company was officially granted its license on Aug. 9, 2010, from the Public Service Commission of the District of Columbia. The consulting firm helps companies maximize their energy consumption while also reducing their electricity bills and carbon footprint.
“While deregulation seems like an easy concept, it’s actually an intricate process to find the right mix of utility rates, product type and energy savings programs for each client,” said JD Dodson, RPM partner and co-founder.
The basic idea is to deregulate the generation of electricity and give consumers the choice to decide where they buy their power. Remember when you couldn’t shop around for a phone carrier, but now you can? It’s the same concept. Local utility distributors would continue to deliver the power, for a fee, over their lines.
RPM also operates in Texas, California, Delaware, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Florida, Indiana and Pennsylvania. Companies interested in tapping RPM’s extensive expertise and energy brokerage services can also call (888) 509-3030 or access http://www.rapidpower.net.
*The rate cap did not expire until Jan. 2005 so the market was not actively deregulated until Jan. 2005.
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