2011

December 29th, 2011

Charts and Graphs – December 29, 2011

Natural Gas 12-Month Strip

Natural Gas Storage

Natural Gas Rigs vs. NYMEX Prices

Natural Gas/Crude Oil Price Correlation

3-Month Temperature Outlook

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December 29th, 2011

Natural Gas Update – December 29, 2011

Natural Gas Storage Facts

EIA (Energy Information Administration) reported a net withdrawal of 81 Bcf (billion cubic feet) for the week ending December 23, 2011.

Inventories are at 3,548 Bcf, which is up 9.1% or 297 Bcf from last year and 428 above the 5-year average or 13.7%.

www.eia.doe.gov

Due to the holiday season, the EIA will release its next natural gas update next week, on January 5, 2011.

www.bloomberg.com

12/24-Month Strip (NYMEX) Price

12 Month Strip                        24 Month Strip

$3.33 MMBtu                         $3.66 MMBtu

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December 29th, 2011

Oil Update – December 29, 2011

Crude Oil Price: $99.65 at 3:33 PM

Crude Gains, Pulled Higher By Equities

Crude futures ended higher Thursday, bouncing back from midday losses as stock markets rallied and U.S. oil stockpiles posted modest increases.

Nymex light, sweet crude for February delivery settled 29 cents higher, or 0.3%, at $99.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE Futures exchange traded 55 cents higher at $107.96 a barrel.

After a midday dip into negative territory, oil prices were pulled along by a rally in equities, which rose on data showing improvement in the U.S. housing and employment sectors.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has served as a guidepost for the oil market in recent months as crude traders eye economic sentiment, was recently 108 points higher at 12261.

The increase in the stock market was coupled with weekly U.S. oil inventory data from the Department of Energy. The agency said Thursday that U.S. oil inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 23.

While the results were above analysts’ average estimate, Peter Donovan, a vice president and broker at Vantage Trading in New York, said the report inspired some relief buying after the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, released its own data Wednesday showing a much larger 9.6 million-barrel build.

“The Energy Department build was just so much less than the API number,” Donovan said.

Still, the report also showed a drop in implied demand for fuel products, suggested that the massive 10.6 million stockpile decline in the week-earlier report was a one-time event linked to year-end shuffling of inventory by refineries.

Stockpiles of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, increased by 1.2 million barrels. Gasoline stockpiles fell by 700,000 barrels after analysts had expected a 500,000-barrel drop.

Futures have hung near the $100 a barrel mark for most of December. Improving economic data in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, has created expectations of rising demand. But weakness in Europe continues to drag down crude and other commodities as investors worry about the consequences of the region’s debt crisis.

“In Europe there are still a lot of worries,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at PFGBest. He added that price moves could be exaggerated this week due to light volumes.

Meanwhile, statements from the U.S. and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz have raised tensions in the oil-producing region and helped put a floor under prices.

The U.S. Navy force stationed in the Persian Gulf maintained normal interaction with its Iranian counterpart as Tehran conducts war games in the Gulf. On Wednesday, the U.S. military warned against any attempt by Iran to close the strait, which handles roughly 15 million barrels of oil a day.

“Any attempt to close the strait will not be tolerated,” George Little, the Pentagon press secretary, said. “The strait is an economic lifeline for countries in the Gulf, including Iran.”

The statement came in response to earlier threats by Iran to shut the channel if the West pressed ahead with sanctions over the nation’s nuclear program.

“If our enemies in the West start conspiring against us, we’ll take strong action to put them in their place,” said First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi in a speech to Iranian students Tuesday.

Front-month January reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, settled 2.88 cents, or 1.1%, higher at $2.6801 a gallon. January heating oil settled 2.41 cents higher at $2.9175 a gallon.

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December 29th, 2011

Rig Count – December 29, 2011

The total number of oil and natural gas rigs in the US ­­­decreased by 11 to 2,008 for December 22, 2011.

Oil Rigs:  1,206    |    Gas Rigs:   802

Previous Week:

Oil Rigs:   1,201   |    Gas Rigs:   818

Last Year:

Oil Rigs:   783    |    Gas Rigs:   931

www.bakerhughes.com

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December 29th, 2011

Index Stats – December 29, 2011

ERCOT

North: $0.02357

Houston: $0.02331

South: $0.02312

West: $0.01741

Reg Down: $0.00596

Reg Up:  $0.00590

RRS:  $0.00620

NYISO

NYC LBMP: $0.0312

PJM

AEP GEN HUB LMP: $0.032735

ISO NE

Mass. Boston Day Ahead LMP: $0.04714

MISO

Illinois Hub Hourly LMP: $0.024725

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December 29th, 2011

Weather Update – December 29, 2011

Northeast:

* Snow showers are expected in the interior today, spreading into western New England tonight

* Snow should mix with and change to rain in parts of western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia

* Windy conditions in Northern New England this morning should taper off, but bitter wind chills are still possible in parts of Northern New England and northern New York: the spot in the country expected to be colder than average

* Highs will range from around 10 in northern Maine to around 50 in western West Virginia

 

South:

* Dry and mild weather expected across the region this afternoon

* Highs will range from the 40s in northern Virginia to the 70s in South Florida and the Rio Grande Valley

 

Mid West:

* Snow, with a mix of rain and snow for parts of the Ohio Valley, expected near the Great Lakes today from a system that will move into the Northeast by tonight

* A mix of precipitation types is expected in the Northern Plains today, spreading east through the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes tonight

* Mild temperatures for late December are expected across the region, with the greatest departures from average (20+ degrees above average) expected in the Plains

* Highs will range from the 20s in northern Minnesota and Upper Michigan to the 60s in the Central Plains

 

West:

* Rain, mountain snow, and wind are expected from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies

* Avalanche danger is high in some mountain areas, with an avalanche warning posted in the Tetons, Gros Ventre, and Wind River Mountains of Wyoming

* Poor air quality continues in the Central Valley of California

* Mild temperatures for late December are expected, with highs ranging from the 20s in the higher elevations of the Cascades to around 80 in some spots in Southern California

www.weather.com

 

 

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December 22nd, 2011

Charts and Graphs – December 22, 2011

Natural Gas 12-Month Strip

Natural Gas Storage

Natural Gas Rigs vs. NYMEX Prices

Natural Gas/Crude Oil Price Correlation

3-Month Temperature Outlook

Read More



December 22nd, 2011

Natural Gas Update – December 22, 2011

Natural Gas Storage Facts

EIA (Energy Information Administration) reported a net withdrawal of 100 Bcf (billion cubic feet) for the week ending December 16, 2011.

Inventories are at 3,629 Bcf, which is up 6.9% or 235 Bcf from last year and 387 Bcf above the 5-year average or 11.9%.

www.eia.doe.gov

Even though today marks the first full day of winter, natural gas prices fell on the report week at most market locations. The Henry Hub price flirted with the sub-$3 per MMBtu mark, but ultimately ranged within $3.01 per MMBtu and $3.08 per MMBtu, ending the week three cents below its value last Wednesday. Although Northeastern prices increased with cold weather, they eventually fell by the end of the report week. Forecasts for colder temperatures across most of the country heading into the weekend, however, could lead to some gains in prices.

At the NYMEX, the January 2012 contract posted a small gain over the report week, rising from $3.136 per MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.155 per MMBtu yesterday. The contract recovered losses from earlier in the week; on Monday, the contract ended the day at $3.096 per MMBtu. The 12-month strip (the average of the 12 contracts between January and December 2012) followed a similar pattern, rising from $3.405 per MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.430 per MMBtu yesterday.

Temperatures during the week ending December 15 were 1.9 degrees warmer than the 30-year normal temperature and 5.7 degrees warmer than last year. All regions except the Mountain and Pacific experienced relatively warm temperatures during the week.  Those two regions, largely comprising the West storage region, were respectively 1.0 and 3.1 degrees colder than the 5-year average. Nationwide, heating degree-days were down 6.2 percent from average and 17.3 percent from last year.

12/24-Month Strip (NYMEX) Price

12 Month Strip                        24 Month Strip

$3.44 MMBtu                          $3.76 MMBtu

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December 22nd, 2011

Oil Update – December 22, 2011

Crude Oil Price: $98.67 at 3:33 PM

Crude Prices Flirt with $100 a Barrel

Crude futures rallied Thursday and flirted with $100 a barrel, rising with equities on improved U.S. economic data and continued momentum from a report Wednesday showing a tightening oil-supply picture.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery ended the day up 86 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $99.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange was up 12 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $107.83 a barrel. Volume was about one-third of normal levels because of the holiday week.

Futures prices touched the $100-a-barrel threshold twice during the day, for the first time since last week. Oil traders chose to look past weaker economic data, with third-quarter U.S. economic growth revised downward. Traders and analysts said the market appeared primed to drive higher, ignoring what would ordinarily be caution signals.

“Wall Street wants to end this happy, happy year with oil above the psychologically important $100 level, and who’s to argue with the best and brightest the Ivy League has to offer?” said Stephen Schork, analyst and editor of The Schork Report. “It’s like fighting city hall. You can’t fight it.”

The Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly last week, decreasing 4,000 to 364,000 in the week ended Dec. 17, reaching the lowest level since April 2008. The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators advanced for the seventh-straight month, and the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index rose.

Still, the Commerce Department said the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.8 percent during the third quarter, lower than its previous estimate and the analyst consensus of 2 percent.

Stocks rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently up 62 points to 12169. Oil often trades in tandem with equities. Analysts said the crude market was getting a continued boost from Wednesday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration report showing weekly oil inventories dropped 10.6 million barrels to 324 million barrels, the largest drop in more than a decade and a three-year low.

Oil’s gain “was kind of surprising, given the U.S. GDP number and everything else going on, unless it’s just a further knock-on effect from what we saw yesterday from inventories,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics in Austin, Texas. “Market participants still continue to be ignoring the international problems and threats which are looming larger and larger every day, whereas they’re focusing on tepid improvements in the U.S. economy.”

Front-month January reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, ended up 1.99 cents higher at $2.6398 a gallon. January heating oil settled down 0.11 cent to $2.9076 a gallon.

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December 22nd, 2011

Rig Count – December 22, 2011

The total number of oil and natural gas rigs in the US ­­­increased by 32 to 2,019 for December 16, 2011.

Oil Rigs:   1,201   |    Gas Rigs:    818

Previous Week:

Oil Rigs:   1,167   |    Gas Rigs:    820

Last Year:

Oil Rigs:  768      |    Gas Rigs:   941

www.bakerhughes.com

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